In Afghanistan, the Marjah offensive is about to begin. NATO and Afghan troops will invade the Taliban controlled town of 80,000 people and more than likely dislodge them. Thereafter, a new security force and government will be created. It is difficult to judge how much of a fight the Taliban will put up. Some have reportedly left the area aware of the publicity surrounding the operation. Yet other insurgents have built defensive positions and mined roads and pathways ready to defend.
Historically, it has been easy for NATO troops to defeat the Taliban in any given area. The problem has been to keep the land once they hand it over to the Afghan police and army. In the spirit of the new Obama strategy, this time must be different. Marjah can serve as a new model that can set the tone for things to come. For that, Afghan forces must take the lead in the offensive and they must receive praises from their government in the aftermath of their victory in a sort of publicity stunt similar to what we had in the repelled Taliban attack on Kabul a few weeks ago.
The real issue however is what the coalition and the central government do to administer and secure the area after the offensive is over. We can expect whatever is put in place in Marjah to survive just by the sheer weight of attention and resources likely to be poured in, but the decisions taken now may only reveal their impact one or two years down the road. Decisions about the structure of the new government and the composition of the security forces will be crucial for the longevity of the arrangements in this Pashtun tribal locale. It will be important to stress local elements and engage any potential pro-government commander and its militia to take an active part in the security arrangements. Just as important will be to give a strong and effective role to the elders in governing their own traditional land. This is to avoid the past mistakes of putting in place weak, corrupt and disconnected central government agents. At the risk of irritating the Karzai government, funds and resources ear tagged for the area will have to be distributed directly to local elements. Failure to do so will mean the temporary stability will disappear in a year or two.
The Afghan interior minister recently convened the Marjah elders in an effort to coordinate the transition after the military offensive. The tribes will be allowed to form two councils which will advise the government of the region on policy and local political appointments. Going further than this, the U.S. and central government powers must be able to seat the real power within those councils. They cannot be mere advisers or the governance problems of the past will repeat themselves. Tribes represent the basic political structure for the area; anything superimposed on top of that must be able to gain consent from the elders of the tribes. If the central administrators fail to win local support and if they act in a corrupt way in the eyes of the local population, elders may switch their support to or otherwise facilitate the return of the Taliban. This is what happened in the past and it can happen again.
The real problem is with legitimacy. It is not, as some claim, a matter of reconstruction. If the reconstruction efforts take place in a climate of political discord, it will appear to be the act of outsiders and will not gain any traction no matter how many hundreds of thousands is spent on schools, roads and irrigation. It is time we make room in the Afghan constitutional framework to devolve powers to areas such as these to accountable local powers. In these rest the tradition of governance and justice that will help extricate the regions from Taliban control and influence.
The second aspect of the issue is with the security forces that will keep the peace and prevent the Taliban from coming back. "Give me your sons and we will make a national police force with them" said Afghan interior minister Hanif Atmar. Recruiting locally is no doubt the right thing to do. The presence of central government forces in the area is also necessary. However, beyond those measures, efforts must be made to seek out local commanders in the area that may be willing to defend the area in conjunction with official government forces. Disbanding local militias has been a mistake in the past.
Perhaps the local militias are currently aligned with the Taliban. Once they are defeated, those local elements and their commanders must be allowed to remain full and must be empowered to play a role in this fairly remote area of Afghanistan. Allegiances can change and no where have they done so more than in Afghanistan in its 30 years of war. The pro-government forces must avoid branding individuals and their groups as necessarily Taliban when they are a potential help to the stability of a locale. Most of these people only want peace and don't really care whether the powers above are from the central government or the Taliban. Sometimes, they resent both and this is why they must be allowed to play a greater role in their own backyard. This is follows a basic principle of accountability and respect.
Recognizing instead of disbanding local militias presents the problems of fragmentation and coordination of security efforts, but failure to do so has a greater potential of breading dissent and helping the opposition in the longer run. Politics is never easy.
Informative and interesting. Thanks !
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